Trading Vision Blog

Slow down in housing market: Can it predict the end of the next U.S. recession?


Composite Cycles Model on New Home Sales indicates possible end for U.S. recession as early as summer 2024.

New Home Sales - also known as "New Residental Sales" - is an economic indicator that measures sales of newly built homes.

Can We Use Net Liquidity to Predict The Market?


A a metric based on a calculation of Net Liquidity suggests that the SPX is now over 300 Points "Over Valued" which represents the largest deviation seen at any time over the last two years.

Treasury yield curve inversion and cycle model signal trouble for stock markets


The following chart shows the 10 year US treasury minus the 1 year treasury spread curve in blue. The current yield curve is negative which results in an inverted yield curve. Attention is keenly focused on the yield curve slope as sustained inversions in past decades have been followed by economic downturns over the ensuing 12 to 18 months.

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